Drought Advisories

Dated: 16^th January, 2010            

Drought Advisory:

 

Emerging Drought conditions in the Country

            Most parts of the country are experiencing extremely dry conditions mainly due to the prevailing El-Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The El-Nino Conditions which developed in June, 2009, and suppressed Pakistan Monsoon rainfall by about 30%, are likely to continue till next summer.

Since the end of monsoon season, which too was deficient, most parts of the country, except some areas of Central & North Balochistan, have not received any significant rainfall. 

 Drought generally occurs in the following three stages. 

 

(i)        Meteorological Drought occurs when rainfall is below 40% of the expected rainfall in any area for an extended period.       

            Most parts of the country are under severe Meteorological drought conditions because no appreciable rainfall has occurred during the last four months. 

(ii)        Hydrological Drought occurs when there is a sustained deficit in surface runoff below normal conditions. 

            The country is experiencing hydrological drought conditions because the availability of surface water in major reservoirs have aggravated due to 30% below normal rains during monsoon and persistent long dry spell afterwards. since temperatures in catchment areas have already reached at freezing level, so no significant improvements in the reservoirs is expected during coming weeks.               

                 Tarbela Dam:

Water level in Tarbela is presently 131 feet below the maximum conservation level, indicating that only 0.994 m.a.f. live water storage is available against dam live capacity of 9.30 m.a.f. 

   Mangla Dam:

            Water level in Mangla is presently 128 feet below the maximum conservation level, indicating that only 0.4 m.a.f. live water storage is available against dam live capacity of 4.82 m.a.f. Comparison at last 10 year's data indicates that water situation is similar to the drought year of 2002.

            Inflows in Rawal, Khanpur and Simly Dams are also diminishing that may lead to shortage in urban areas because the rainfall in catchment areas is likely to remain below normal. 

(iii)        Agricultural Drought occurs when rainfall amount and distribution, soil water reserves and evaporation losses combine to start effecting crops.   

             After crossing two stages of drought i.e. meteorological and hydrological drought the country is now entering the emerging agricultural drought stages. 

              Barani areas of the country which are already experiencing crops failure, are under severe agricultural drought.              

              In the face of diminishing irrigation water, irrigated plain areas are also likely to come under emerging agriculture drought condition.

                According to the prevailing meteorological conditions, the cold and dry weather conditions are likely to continue for another week and significantly below normal (30%) winter rains are predicted during the month of January and February in most parts of the country. 

            In the present scenario of worsening drought condition in the country, judicious use of available water resources and efficient agriculture/irrigation practices are advised.     

 

 

                         

 

(Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry)

                                                                                                                     Director General, PMD 

 

                                                                                                                    

                 2^nd January, 2010

Drought Advisory

Below normal rains predicted  during January-February 2010

 

Severe moisture stress for Rabi Crops and Water scarcity continue

 

Met Office predicted significantly below normal winter rains during the month of January and February in most parts of the country. Due to abnormal dry weather conditions, the rabi crops especially in barani areas, would remain under server moisture stress, and the water scarcity in urban areas may further be aggravated.

 

Spokesman of Met Office informed that a high pressure area due to El-Nino conditions is prevailing over Pakistan since November 2009, and it is blocking the winter rains for the country. The current El-Nino conditions that started in June, 2009 and suppressed monsoon rains in Pakistan, are still continuing and expected to last till spring 2010. Expected El Niño impacts during current winter include suppressed winter precipitation over Pakistan. Under these regional and global meteorological parameters, significantly below normal winter rains, ranging from 20-30%, are expected in Pakistan during January-February 2010.

 

Due to low rainfall during last monsoon season, Pakistan was already experiencing water scarcity that has further aggravated during the current winter. During current winter, the snowfall over northern areas, Kashmir and Galliyat (a natural resource of water runoff during dry summer months) remained well below normal so far, and the water shortage therefore may further be aggravated during the coming months. The concerned authorities are requested to consider this weather outlook regarding water management, in particular to mitigate the shortage of water availability during the coming months.

 

During the month of December 2009, 37% below normal winter rain reported from major agricultural areas of country & catchment areas of reservoirs except in Balochistan that received good rains(http://www.pakmet.com.pk/drought/index_files/Page5321.htm)

 

Rainfall during Dec, 2009:

Balochistan =   78% above normal rainfall

Punjab =          96% below normal

Kashmir =        12% below normal

NWFP =           58% below normal

Sindh =             43% below normal

Islamabad =     100% below normal

 

Islamabad, the 26^th December 2009

 

The current winter is going abnormally dry in the country except in northern Balochistan including Quetta, Ziarat, Kalat and Khuzdar areas where some good rains have been recorded during last two weeks. Due to prolonged dry conditions, Rabi Crops in Barani Areas of Punjab are under moderate to severe moisture stress and water scarcity is emerging in the urban areas.

 

Hydrological Drought:

The availability of surface water in major reservoirs have aggravated due to 30% below normal rains during monsoon and persistent long dry spell afterwards. Since temperatures in catchment areas of Tarbela & Mangla have already reached at freezing level, so no significant improvements in these reservoirs is expected during coming weeks.

 

Inflows in Rawal, Khanpur and Simly Dams are also diminishing that may lead to shortage in urban areas because no appreciable rainfall likely in catchment areas during next two weeks.

 

Outlook for next two weeks

Due to the prevailing global & regional meteorological conditions, a high pressure area is prevailing over Pakistan, and is blocking the winter rains for the country. Therefore the cold and dry weather conditions are likely to continue and no significant rains are expected in the country till the next two weeks.

 

The blocking high pressure area is likely to subside gradually during first week of January 2010, and then gradually some winter rainfall activity may pick up. Some winter rains are predicted during the month of January. However, no significant improvement in water availability is expected in coming weeks.

 

Better water management by the concerned agencies during the last two months have helped to ease out the water crises to a manageable level, still we are likely to face more than 40% shortfall for rabi crops.

 

 

Sd/-

(ARIF MAHMOOD)

Chief Meteorologist

 

 

 

8-Dec-2009      

16-Nov-2009

 

                                                                                                                     Media Reports

Copyright © 2008 Pakistan Meteorological Department. All Rights Reserved.
Contact : ndmcisl@ndmc.gov.pk

Dated: 25^th January, 2010

                        Drought Advisory: UPDATE

   

Scattered Winter Rain on 28^th & 29^th Predicted:     MET OFFICE

Expected to help in alleviating the drought conditions.   

        First Winter Rain in upper parts of the country is expected on 28^th & 29^th January, 2010 after about 4-month of dry period.

        A westerly weather system is expected to approach Balochistan on 27^th and after giving some scattered  rainfall in Balochistan it would extend to other upper parts of the country including upper parts of Punjab and Islamabad.

 

        Kashmir and Northern areas are also expected to receive rainfall/ snowfall during the above mentioned period.

 

        These rains are expected, to some extent, help in alleviating the emerging drought  conditions and in improving the dense fog conditions in Punjab.

 

        As far as the El-Nino phenomena, in Pacific Ocean, suppressing our rainfall is concerned, it after reaching a peak is now expected to decrease gradually and neutralize sometime in early summer.

 

        The winter rains in the country, as predicated earlier, are expected to remain about 30% below normal. Judicious use of available water resources is emphasized.